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Monday, August 14, 2006

AWS-1 Auction – Day 4 Summary

What a day!

I wouldn’t be surprised if even The President of the USA finds out that today the FCC raised US$3,269,449,800 for the US Treasury.

AWS-1 Day4

The absolute net figure raised of US$5,673,103, 700 is only the start of the story, the supa-license band “F” has got to such a level that if the other bands sell for the same price per population per MHz: the total value raised at the auction would be US$12,005,208,000.

The differentials now are:
  • 1.13x (1.21x day-3) for the combined REA D/E band;
  • 7.5x (5.77x – day3) for the BEA B band; and an incredible
  • 11.33x (6.15x – day3) for the CMA A band.
I am amazed that the bidders are not yet coming off the top bands and bidding up the values for the CMA and BEA licenses. I expect people to start seeing some sense overnight and run the risk of “stranded” licenses explained previously.

The record raised in an auction was US$16.857bn in 2000/1 for Auction #35 for the “C” and “F” bands. We are almost certain to beat this absolute figure now, but I doubt we will beat the price of MHz/pop as much more spectrum is on offer this time around.